25%
Chance of being correct
Doubtful question in a negative-marking exam — attempt or skip? Enter your exam's scheme and how many options you can rule out. Probability gives a clear answer.
If you can eliminate E options out of N, your chance when guessing among the rest is 1 ÷ (N − E). When the expected value is positive, attempting similar questions gains you marks on average; when negative, skipping protects your score. This is the same logic used in every probability textbook — applied to your exam hall decision.
| Exam (scheme) | Blind guess | Eliminate 1 option |
|---|---|---|
| SSC CGL / CHSL (+2, −0.50, 4 opt) | ATTEMPT (+0.13) | ATTEMPT (+0.33) |
| Bank IBPS/SBI (+1, −0.25, 5 opt) | Neutral (0.00) | ATTEMPT (+0.06) |
| UPSC Prelims GS (+2, −0.66, 4 opt) | Neutral (0.00) | ATTEMPT (+0.22) |
| RRB NTPC (+1, −0.33, 4 opt) | Neutral (0.00) | ATTEMPT (+0.11) |
| NEET (+4, −1, 4 opt) | ATTEMPT (+0.25) | ATTEMPT (+0.67) |
A striking pattern: most Indian exam schemes make a blind guess neutral or slightly positive — and eliminating even one option always tips the math in favour of attempting.
Mathematically yes, on average — with +2/−0.50 across 4 options, even a blind guess has +0.125 expected marks. But remember this is an average; individual guesses can still go wrong.
No — those schemes are designed to make a blind guess exactly neutral. But eliminating even one option makes attempting profitable.
When the expected value is negative — typically a harsh penalty (like −1 on a +1 question) with no options eliminated. The verdict box computes this precisely for your inputs.
Your average gain or loss per guess if you faced the same situation many times. Positive = attempting gains marks on average; negative = skipping is safer.